More on oil.

So last night I did not actually leave the office until almost 6pm, much later than I planned, too much work to do. So I had to skip reading Fast Food Nation. But at least I did my exercises, so I don't feel too bad about things right now. Tonight I expect to be working until Midnight, possibly later, so I don't imagine I'm gonna feel so swell tomorrow morning. But at least this monster of a project is nearly done.

Anyway yesterday I discussed at a high level what is going on in Fort McMurry right now. (I should point out, that I went from saying a barrel of Fort McMurry tar costs about $32 and a barrel of synthetic crude costs $40, the reason for the delta? $8 per barrel to upgrade from tar to synthetic.

The reason I bring up Fort McMurry is that it is an outstanding example of what is wrong with the World today. At a rate of about one and one half million barrels of oil a day from North Alberta tar sands we are ripping up four thousand pounds (two thousand kilos) of Alberta tar sand and four hundred cubic feet (10.8 cubic metres) of natural gas per barrel. Multiplying the numbers, 1.5 million * 2 tons = 3 million tons of sand and 800 million cubic feet of natural gas, every single day are spent to make oil to drive just a small fraction of the World's economy.

Why do we as humans put out such a monster effort to tap Alberta tar? To be sure Alberta is much more politically stable and reliable than even parts of the United States. (Heck they've been electing "Progressive Conservatives" (note the change in font size) out there in Calagry since the days of Peter Lougheed was elected in '71. That surely beats trying not to get killed or nationalized pulling oil out of Iraq or Venezuela.

That said, would it not make more sense to consider alternatives to Oil? As I have hinted at, I am "thinking we're running out. We're running out and ninety percent of what's left is in the Middle East. So if you look at the whole progression from Versailles, through Suez, 1973, Gulf War One, Gulf War II, it's really shaping up as a fight to the death. So what they're thinking is keep playing, keep buying your toys, keep spending fifty thousand dollars a night for your hotel room, but don't invest in your infrastructure, don't build a real economy, so when you finally wake up, they will have sucked you dry and you will have squandered the greatest natural resource in history." From the script of Syriana.

Do I believe in peak oil? Of course I do, Oil is a non-renewable resource, we consume it, we burn it, we turn it into water bottles, we use it to heat our homes and light our lights. But there's only so much and when we have less oil coming out of the ground then we consume then what? When supply is exceeded by demand what will happen? Prices will rise, and as prices rise we adapt, but the supply keeps decreasing, will demand fall? Sure the economy will slow because of the high price of oil, and the slower the economy goes the less oil we will need, so the supply will last a little longer. But eventually all the oil will run out. Then where does the next fill up come from? The next water bottle? The next fertilizer and pesticide? The next food additive? The next Vitamin?

We've developed so many applications for hydro carbons I am not sure how well we will adapt to returning to living like it was 1800 all over again.

Anyway its something to think about.